Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Wisconsin
Updated November 4, 2026 at 02:00 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Wisconsin in the 2026 midterms. Wisconsin's governor race: David Crowley (Democrat) leads at 94.9% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 4 and Republicans in 4 of 8 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | David Crowley 94.9% | Tom Tiffany 5.7% | Likely Democrat | $1.12M | race page |
| House WI-01 | Mitchell Berman 70% | Bryan Steil 26.5% | Lean Democrat | $33.7K | race page |
| House WI-02 | Mark Pocan 97.9% | Republican 2.0% | Safe Democrat | $105.0K | race page |
| House WI-03 | Rebecca Cooke 93.5% | Derrick Van Orden 7.0% | Likely Democrat | $34.2K | race page |
| House WI-04 | Gwen Moore 92.8% | Tim Rogers 4.0% | Likely Democrat | $37.9K | race page |
| House WI-05 | Andrew Beck 2.4% | Scott Fitzgerald 97.3% | Safe Republican | $109.6K | race page |
| House WI-06 | Brad Smith 23.4% | Glenn Grothman 77.5% | Lean Republican | $50.3K | race page |
| House WI-07 | Fred Clark 11.9% | Michael Alfonso 88.5% | Likely Republican | $82.3K | race page |
| House WI-08 | Rick Crosson 18% | Tony Wied 82% | Likely Republican | $33.4K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 92.2% / Republican 7.6% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Wisconsin 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, November 4, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/wisconsin/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Wisconsin in the 2026 midterms. Wisconsin's governor race: David Crowley (Democrat) leads at 94.9% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 4 and Republicans in 4 of 8 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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