Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Wisconsin
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Wisconsin in the 2026 midterms. Wisconsin's governor race: David Crowley (Democrat) leads at 85% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 5 of 8 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | David Crowley 85% | Tom Tiffany 15.5% | Likely Democrat | $615.0K | race page |
| House WI-01 | Mitchell Berman 34.5% | Bryan Steil 66.5% | Lean Republican | $10.7K | race page |
| House WI-02 | Mark Pocan 98.5% | Republican 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $102.5K | race page |
| House WI-03 | Rebecca Cooke 70.5% | Derrick Van Orden 28.5% | Lean Democrat | $6.5K | race page |
| House WI-04 | Gwen Moore 97.2% | Tim Rogers 1.4% | Safe Democrat | $36.8K | race page |
| House WI-05 | Andrew Beck 4.0% | Scott Fitzgerald 96.2% | Safe Republican | $59.3K | race page |
| House WI-06 | Brad Smith 5.9% | Glenn Grothman 94.5% | Likely Republican | $36.8K | race page |
| House WI-07 | Fred Clark 5.2% | Michael Alfonso 94.5% | Likely Republican | $49.8K | race page |
| House WI-08 | Rick Crosson 9.0% | Tony Wied 89% | Likely Republican | $26.1K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 83.5% / Republican 16.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Wisconsin in the 2026 midterms. Wisconsin's governor race: David Crowley (Democrat) leads at 85% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 5 of 8 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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