Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Oregon
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Oregon in the 2026 midterms. Oregon's Senate race: Jeff Merkley (Democrat) leads at 97.6% (Safe Democrat). Oregon's governor race: Tina Kotek (Democrat) leads at 86.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 1 of 6 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Jeff Merkley 97.6% | David Brock Smith 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $6.7K | race page |
| Governor | Tina Kotek 86.5% | Christine Drazan 13.5% | Likely Democrat | $56.1K | race page |
| House OR-01 | Suzanne Bonamici 95.8% | Barbara Kahl 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $27.5K | race page |
| House OR-02 | Chris Beck 5.5% | Cliff Bentz 94.5% | Likely Republican | $9.0K | race page |
| House OR-03 | Maxine Dexter 95.5% | Loran Ayles 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $20.4K | race page |
| House OR-04 | Val Hoyle 94% | Monique DeSpain 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $22.6K | race page |
| House OR-05 | Janelle Bynum 92.5% | Patti Adair 5.9% | Likely Democrat | $12.3K | race page |
| House OR-06 | Andrea Salinas 96.2% | David Russ 0.7% | Safe Democrat | $26.8K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 97.8% / Republican 2.1% · Governor: Democrat 84% / Republican 16% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Oregon in the 2026 midterms. Oregon's Senate race: Jeff Merkley (Democrat) leads at 97.6% (Safe Democrat). Oregon's governor race: Tina Kotek (Democrat) leads at 86.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 1 of 6 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
Alabama · Alaska · Arizona · Arkansas · California · Colorado · Connecticut · Delaware · Florida · Georgia · Hawaii · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Iowa · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Minnesota · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · South Carolina · South Dakota · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Virginia · Washington · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.