Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Oregon
Updated November 4, 2026 at 02:00 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Oregon in the 2026 midterms. Oregon's Senate race: Jeff Merkley (Democrat) leads at 99.4% (Safe Democrat). Oregon's governor race: Tina Kotek (Democrat) leads at 93.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 1 of 6 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Jeff Merkley 99.4% | David Brock Smith 0.5% | Safe Democrat | $11.8K | race page |
| Governor | Tina Kotek 93.5% | Christine Drazan 6.0% | Likely Democrat | $305.1K | race page |
| House OR-01 | Suzanne Bonamici 96.4% | Barbara Kahl 1.4% | Safe Democrat | $27.8K | race page |
| House OR-02 | Chris Beck 3.5% | Cliff Bentz 96.7% | Safe Republican | $23.6K | race page |
| House OR-03 | Maxine Dexter 98.2% | Loran Ayles 1.2% | Safe Democrat | $21.7K | race page |
| House OR-04 | Val Hoyle 96.2% | Monique DeSpain 2.8% | Safe Democrat | $36.5K | race page |
| House OR-05 | Janelle Bynum 96.6% | Patti Adair 2.0% | Safe Democrat | $36.5K | race page |
| House OR-06 | Andrea Salinas 98% | David Russ 1.7% | Safe Democrat | $27.4K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 99% / Republican 1.0% · Governor: Democrat 93.3% / Republican 7.4% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Oregon 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, November 4, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/oregon/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Oregon in the 2026 midterms. Oregon's Senate race: Jeff Merkley (Democrat) leads at 99.4% (Safe Democrat). Oregon's governor race: Tina Kotek (Democrat) leads at 93.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 1 of 6 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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