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Oregon 2026 election odds on Polymarket

Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026

Polymarket odds for Oregon in the 2026 midterms. Oregon's Senate race: Jeff Merkley (Democrat) leads at 97.6% (Safe Democrat). Oregon's governor race: Tina Kotek (Democrat) leads at 86.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 1 of 6 districts with a market.

RaceDemocratRepublicanRatingVolume
SenateJeff Merkley 97.6%David Brock Smith 2.1%Safe Democrat$6.7Krace page
GovernorTina Kotek 86.5%Christine Drazan 13.5%Likely Democrat$56.1Krace page
House OR-01Suzanne Bonamici 95.8%Barbara Kahl 3.4%Safe Democrat$27.5Krace page
House OR-02Chris Beck 5.5%Cliff Bentz 94.5%Likely Republican$9.0Krace page
House OR-03Maxine Dexter 95.5%Loran Ayles 4.0%Safe Democrat$20.4Krace page
House OR-04Val Hoyle 94%Monique DeSpain 5.5%Likely Democrat$22.6Krace page
House OR-05Janelle Bynum 92.5%Patti Adair 5.9%Likely Democrat$12.3Krace page
House OR-06Andrea Salinas 96.2%David Russ 0.7%Safe Democrat$26.8Krace page

Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 97.8% / Republican 2.1% · Governor: Democrat 84% / Republican 16% (midpoint of bid and ask).

Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.

National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured in Oregon's 2026 elections?

Polymarket odds for Oregon in the 2026 midterms. Oregon's Senate race: Jeff Merkley (Democrat) leads at 97.6% (Safe Democrat). Oregon's governor race: Tina Kotek (Democrat) leads at 86.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 1 of 6 districts with a market.

How are the ratings set?

From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.

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