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November 2026 prediction market calendar

Updated October 10, 2026 · refreshed twice a day · November 1–30, 2026 · dates are Polymarket's listed end dates

1000 Polymarket markets end in November 2026 (single games and short recurring series left out); 5 have settled so far. The most traded: California Governor Election Winner (Nov 3, Xavier Becerra 96%); Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms (Nov 3, Democrats Sweep 61.5%); Which party will win the House in 2026? (Nov 3, Democratic Party 90.5%).

Key dates

By section: Economy, central banks and data releases (14) · Elections (859) · Politics and geopolitics (21) · Sports (43) · Tech and AI (39) · Culture and awards (13) · Other markets (11)

Economy, central banks and data releases

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 2ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 202653.0 to 53.9 20%$10.6K
Nov 3Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in NovemberNo change 83.5%$86.9K
Nov 3JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026<6.8M 20.5%$11.2K
Nov 4Bank of Brazil decision in November?25 bps decrease 86.5%$50.3K
Nov 4ISM Services PMI - October 202653.0 to 53.9 27.5%$13.4K
Nov 5Bank of England decision in November?25 bps increase 90%$296.3K
Nov 5Bank of Mexico Decision in November?No change 68.5%$52.0K
Nov 6How many jobs added in October?100k+ 25.5%$19.9K
Nov 6October Unemployment Rate4.2% 35% (as of 2026-10-07)$2.8K
Nov 12UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?0.4–0.5% 39%$33.4K
Nov 16Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?0.0%–0.8% 27% (as of 2026-10-09)$41.4K
Nov 26Bank of Korea decision in November?25 bps hike 46.5% (as of 2026-10-06)$32.3K
Nov 30SpaceX’s Market Cap end of November 2026?$2.00-$2.25T 26% (as of 2026-10-09)$3.0K
Nov 30Moody's or S&P downgrades France?By November 30 75.5%$2.3K

Elections

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 3California Governor Election WinnerXavier Becerra 96%$41.74M
Nov 3Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsDemocrats Sweep 61.5%$21.32M
Nov 3Which party will win the House in 2026?Democratic Party 90.5%$15.91M
Nov 3Which party will win the Senate in 2026?Democratic Party 62.5%$6.26M
Nov 3Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes 24.5%$3.89M
Nov 3Texas Senate Election WinnerJames Talarico (D) 63.5%$3.12M
Nov 3Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?≤47 38.5%$3.07M
Nov 3Maine Senate Election WinnerTroy Jackson (D) 58.5%$2.20M
Nov 3Michigan Senate Election WinnerAbdul El-Sayed (D) 69.5%$1.55M
Nov 3Alaska Governor Election WinnerJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 76.8%$1.42M
Nov 3Alaska Senate Election WinnerMary Peltola 73.5%$1.18M
Nov 3Ohio Senate Election WinnerSherrod Brown (D) 61.5%$1.13M
Nov 3Kansas Senate Election WinnerRoger Marshall (R) 62.5%$861.4K
Nov 3Iowa Senate Election WinnerAshley Hinson (R) 57.5%$834.4K
Nov 3South Carolina Senate Election WinnerDarline Graham Nordone (R) 84.5%$741.3K
Nov 3Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerDavid Crowley (D) 80.5%$712.2K
Nov 3How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?22–23 32%$704.6K
Nov 3Nebraska Senate Election WinnerPete Ricketts (R) 71.5%$581.6K
Nov 3Texas Governor Election WinnerGreg Abbott (R) 76.6%$492.2K
Nov 3Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?Florida 98.6%$420.1K
Nov 3ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?Not Extended & Democratic Party 91.5%$408.6K
Nov 3Nevada Governor Election WinnerAaron Ford (D) 53.5%$357.5K
Nov 3New Hampshire Senate Election WinnerChris Pappas (D) 89.5%$320.1K
Nov 3Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Below 190 28%$319.6K
Nov 3Ohio Governor Election WinnerAmy Acton (D) 70.5%$301.0K
Nov 3Florida Governor Election WinnerByron Donalds (R) 77.5%$280.8K
Nov 3Michigan Governor Election WinnerJocelyn Benson (D) 93.8%$253.8K
Nov 3Vermont Governor Election WinnerPhil Scott (R) 75%$226.8K
Nov 3Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?Yes 1.8%$226.2K
Nov 3Florida Senate Election WinnerAshley Moody (R) 90.5%$219.3K
Nov 3North Carolina Senate Election WinnerRoy Cooper (D) 96.4%$218.5K
Nov 3Georgia Senate Election WinnerJon Ossoff (D) 96.5%$218.4K
Nov 3Minnesota Senate Election WinnerPeggy Flanagan (D) 87.5%$215.0K
Nov 3Georgia Governor Election WinnerRick Jackson (R) 52%$184.9K
Nov 3Next Senate Majority Leader?Chuck Schumer 47%$172.7K
Nov 3New York Governor Election WinnerKathy Hochul (D) 96%$168.2K
Nov 3Montana Senate Election WinnerKurt Alme (R) 91.5%$161.7K
Nov 32026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of VictoryDemocrats 8-10% 28.5%$154.4K
Nov 28Taipei Mayor Election WinnerChiang Wan-an 64.5%$805.0K
Nov 282026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party WinnerKuomintang (KMT) 86.5%$224.9K

819 smaller markets in this section are in the JSON file.

Politics and geopolitics

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 2Federal Gas Tax Suspended?By November 2 1.0% (as of 2026-10-08)$47.8K
Nov 3US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes 74.5%$118.9K
Nov 3GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?Iowa 69.5% (as of 2026-10-04)$2.6K
Nov 4Who will Bernie endorse?Alan Grayson - FL-Sen 29.6%$190.6K
Nov 11Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?280M 60.5%$13.6K
Nov 15Pakistan military action against Afghanistan?By November 15 64% (as of 2026-10-10)$4.3K
Nov 30Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes 7.5%$708.9K
Nov 30Will Iran target Saudi Arabia?By November 30 14.5%$96.5K
Nov 30Israel military action against Syria?By November 30 44%$82.1K
Nov 30Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West)?By November 30 65.5%$47.9K
Nov 30Will Iran target Oman?By November 30 5.5% (as of 2026-10-06)$44.4K
Nov 30EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?30M+ 86.5%$30.6K
Nov 30Yemeni forces enter Sanaa?By November 30 6.5%$20.9K
Nov 30Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates?By November 30 49% (as of 2026-10-09)$15.5K
Nov 30Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?Alibaba 23.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$10.0K
Nov 30Best Chinese AI Company end of November?Alibaba 35% (as of 2026-10-04)$8.8K
Nov 30USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM?November 30 59% (as of 2026-10-10)$7.0K
Nov 30USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM?By November 30 97.9%$5.9K
Nov 30How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?2 53% (as of 2026-10-09)$3.7K
Nov 30Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Yes 8.5% (as of 2026-10-04)$1.2K
Nov 30Tompkins County District Attorney out by November 30?Yes 15% (as of 2026-10-08)$879

Sports

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 1NPB Japan Series Champion (2026)Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks 43% (as of 2026-10-09)$8.0K
Nov 6NBA to announce expansion team in Las Vegas?By November 6 83% (as of 2026-10-03)$13.4K
Nov 10Will any game last over 70 minutes at the BLAST Slam VIII Playoffs?Yes 99.5% (as of 2026-10-09)$4.1K
Nov 10Will the BLAST Slam VIII Grand Final be a reverse sweep?Yes 8.0% (as of 2026-10-07)$3.7K
Nov 10BLAST Slam VIII Grand Final Game 1: Total Roshan KillsO/U 1.5 62.5% (as of 2026-10-07)$2.3K
Nov 10Will a team win a game after trailing by 10,000+ gold at the BLAST Slam VIII Playoffs?Yes 97.5% (as of 2026-10-09)$2.2K
Nov 10Most Kills at BLAST Slam VIII PlayoffsWs 48.2%$2.1K
Nov 10Will the BLAST Slam VIII champion win every Playoffs map?Yes 19.5% (as of 2026-10-07)$1.7K
Nov 10Will a Divine Rapier be purchased at the BLAST Slam VIII Playoffs?Yes 97.8% (as of 2026-10-09)$1.6K
Nov 10Will one team kill two Tormentors in a single game at the BLAST Slam VIII Playoffs?Yes 86.5% (as of 2026-10-07)$1.2K
Nov 10Will any player go Beyond Godlike at the BLAST Slam VIII Playoffs?Yes 91.5% (as of 2026-10-07)$997
Nov 14WNBA: 2026 ChampionGolden State Valkyries 51.6%$1.53M
Nov 14WNBA: 2026 Defensive Player of the Year✔ Angel Reese$38.9K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: Longest Game11+ innings 61.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$12.3K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: Number of Walk-Offs2+ 90.5% (as of 2026-10-08)$7.9K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: World Series MVPJacob Misiorowski 37.5% (as of 2026-10-07)$3.0K
Nov 15MLB 2026: World Series Division WinnerNL West 39.5% (as of 2026-10-07)$1.8K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: Strikeout LeaderTarik Skubal 26% (as of 2026-10-09)$1.8K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: SB LeaderChandler Simpson 30.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$1.7K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: RBI LeaderYandy Díaz 13% (as of 2026-10-09)$1.5K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: Hit LeaderBrice Turang 13.5% (as of 2026-10-09)$1.4K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: Runs LeaderBen Rice 16% (as of 2026-10-09)$1.2K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: Home Run LeaderMax Muncy 13.5% (as of 2026-10-09)$930
Nov 17Least Played Map at VALORANT Champions 2026Abyss 55.8%$27.6K
Nov 17Which NRG player will have the most kills at VALORANT Champions 2026?keiko 40.9%$18.6K
Nov 17Most Played Map at VALORANT Champions 2026Summit 90%$16.9K
Nov 17Most Kills on a Single Map at VALORANT Champions 2026tkzin 88.9%$16.5K
Nov 17Which Paper Rex player will have the most kills at VALORANT Champions 2026?something (PRX) 98% (as of 2026-10-10)$16.3K
Nov 17Which G2 Esports player will have the most kills at VALORANT Champions 2026?trent 50.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$10.4K
Nov 17Most First Bloods at VALORANT Champions 2026Meteor 36.9% (as of 2026-10-08)$1.6K
Nov 17VALORANT Champions 2026: First Pacific Team EliminatedGlobal Esports 91.8% (as of 2026-10-04)$1.2K
Nov 17VALORANT Champions 2026: First China Team EliminatedTYLOO 99.4% (as of 2026-10-01)$911
Nov 21NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion (2026)Jesse Love 33.1%$8.7K
Nov 22NASCAR Cup Series: 2026 ChampionKyle Larson 44.3%$59.7K
Nov 28Worlds 2026: WinnerGen.G 32.5%$494.1K
Nov 28Worlds 2026: Finals MVPChovy 15.5%$24.7K
Nov 30MLB: 2026 American League ChampionTampa Bay Rays 65.4%$4.65M
Nov 30MLB: 2026 National League ChampionLos Angeles Dodgers 59.5%$4.38M
Nov 30Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?NONGSHIM RED FORCE 99.2%$25.9K
Nov 30KBO Korean Series Champion (2026)KT Wiz 42% (as of 2026-10-07)$9.8K

3 smaller markets in this section are in the JSON file.

Tech and AI

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 1When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?No release by November 1 91.6%$282.6K
Nov 19GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yes 3.6%$840.3K
Nov 30Gemini 4.0 released?By November 30 98%$1.40M
Nov 30Which company has the best AI model end of November?Google 55%$258.4K
Nov 30How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026?✔ 475k to 500k$132.9K
Nov 30Meta's "Watermelon" model released?By November 30 94.5%$92.2K
Nov 30Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released?By November 30 21.5% (as of 2026-10-03)$41.4K
Nov 30Which company has #1 AI model end of November? (Style Control On)Google 49.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$29.7K
Nov 30#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)Anthropic 52.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$28.8K
Nov 30Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of November?Anthropic 52.5% (as of 2026-10-08)$25.7K
Nov 30#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)Meta 36.5% (as of 2026-10-08)$25.2K
Nov 30Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?OpenAI 62% (as of 2026-10-10)$24.9K
Nov 30Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?OpenAI 87% (as of 2026-10-07)$24.3K
Nov 30Gemini Argon released?By November 30 91%$23.1K
Nov 30Next DeepSeek Pro released?By November 30 25%$22.9K
Nov 30Second-best AI Lab end of November?Anthropic 47.5% (as of 2026-10-08)$22.1K
Nov 30GPU rental prices (H200) end of November?$6.50+ 26.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$20.1K
Nov 30Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?Meta 20.1% (as of 2026-10-09)$15.9K
Nov 30Which company has the best AI Agent end of November?Anthropic 77.5% (as of 2026-10-07)$15.7K
Nov 30Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of November?Anthropic 52% (as of 2026-10-09)$14.9K
Nov 30GPU rental prices (A100) end of November?$0.75-$1.00 58.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$14.9K
Nov 30Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?Google 42.5% (as of 2026-10-02)$13.2K
Nov 30Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?OpenAI 66% (as of 2026-10-05)$12.3K
Nov 30Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?Google 32.5% (as of 2026-10-09)$12.0K
Nov 30Third-best AI Agent Lab end of November?Google 36% (as of 2026-10-10)$11.5K
Nov 30Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?Google 57.5%$11.5K
Nov 30Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of November?Anthropic 64.5% (as of 2026-10-09)$11.2K
Nov 30Third-best AI Lab end of November?Meta 36.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$11.0K
Nov 30Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released?By November 30 47.5% (as of 2026-10-02)$9.2K
Nov 30Next DeepSeek Flash released?By November 30 31.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$8.6K
Nov 30Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released?By November 30 64% (as of 2026-10-10)$8.5K
Nov 30Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of November?Anthropic 63.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$8.4K
Nov 30GPU rental prices (B200) end of November?<$7.00 22.5% (as of 2026-10-06)$7.8K
Nov 30GPU rental prices (H100) end of November?$2.50-$2.75 20% (as of 2026-10-10)$7.7K
Nov 30OpenAI’s valuation end of November 2026?$1.30T+ 46.5%$7.2K
Nov 30Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of November?Anthropic 78.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$6.5K
Nov 30GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of November?$0.55-$0.60 27% (as of 2026-10-08)$5.5K
Nov 30Next Grok Model (4.8+) released?By November 30 86.5% (as of 2026-10-09)$3.7K
Nov 30Grok (Web) Outage?By November 30 50.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$527

Culture and awards

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 9"Wild Horse Nine" Rotten Tomatoes Score?87+ 94.4% (as of 2026-10-09)$7.9K
Nov 18CMA Music Video of the Year 2026Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) 50.5% (as of 2026-10-06)$15.2K
Nov 18CMA Musical Event of the Year 2026A Song To Sing (Miranda Lambert and Chris Stapleton) 45.5% (as of 2026-10-09)$13.7K
Nov 18CMA Vocal Duo of the Year 2026Brooks & Dunn 71.5% (as of 2026-10-07)$8.1K
Nov 18CMA New Artist of the Year 2026Tucker Wetmore 50.5% (as of 2026-10-08)$7.7K
Nov 18CMA Male Vocalist of the Year 2026Cody Johnson 46.5% (as of 2026-10-01)$6.1K
Nov 26Who will be featured on GTA VI: The Album?Don Toliver 87%$35.9K
Nov 30GTA VI released?By November 30 95%$203.7K
Nov 30Jynxzi, Ron, and Los # of Minecraft deaths during marathon?✔ 120-149$132.5K
Nov 30Which mobs will eliminate Jynxzi, Ron or Los?✔ Creeper, Zombie, Skeleton (+25 more)$72.3K
Nov 30What will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by?Explosions (6th market) 44.5% (as of 2026-10-09)$43.4K
Nov 30What will MrBeast say during his next gaming YouTube video?Minecraft 99.9%+$5.0K
Nov 30Will Jynxzi, Ron, or Los have the most in-game deaths?Los 99.4% (as of 2026-10-09)$1.0K

Other markets

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 1When will the Danube River return to normal levels?Does not return by November 1, 2026 70%$132.6K
Nov 1When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?No return before November 1, 2026 76.5%$112.4K
Nov 1How long will downtown LA's 100°F streak last?Five 97.8% (as of 2026-10-09)$11.9K
Nov 1September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)1.35–1.39ºC 90.5% (as of 2026-10-09)$11.1K
Nov 3How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?More than 550,000 98.9% (as of 2026-10-07)$10.8K
Nov 3Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?Indonesia 55.5% (as of 2026-10-09)$3.3K
Nov 11US Tornadoes in October 202660 - 89 37% (as of 2026-10-10)$2.8K
Nov 29October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?1st hottest 87.5% (as of 2026-10-10)$12.1K
Nov 30What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?✔ Isaias$82.8K
Nov 30How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?1-3 97.6%$73.4K
Nov 30All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?Yes 47% (as of 2026-10-09)$1.7K

Dates are the end dates Polymarket lists; deadlines set at 11:59 PM or midnight US Eastern Time count on their Eastern day. Trading stops at the end date and payout follows resolution (see how markets resolve). Results appear here once a market settles. Free data: /api/v1/calendar/november-2026.json (CC BY 4.0).

Frequently asked questions

What are the biggest prediction markets in November 2026?

California Governor Election Winner (Nov 3, Xavier Becerra 96%); Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms (Nov 3, Democrats Sweep 61.5%); Which party will win the House in 2026? (Nov 3, Democratic Party 90.5%). Figures as of October 10, 2026.

How are the dates on this calendar chosen?

Each market is placed on the end date Polymarket lists for it. Deadlines set at 11:59 PM or midnight US Eastern Time count on their Eastern day. Trading stops at the end date; payout follows once the market resolves under its rules, which can take longer.

Which markets are left out?

Single games and short recurring series (up/down, daily prices, weather, weekly post counts, stock price paths). Central-bank decisions, data releases, elections, awards and season-long sports markets are included.

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