October 2026 is over: results were added until November 7, last update November 7, 2026 · October 1–31, 2026 · dates are Polymarket's listed end dates
| Date | Market | Odds now / result | Volume |
|---|
| Oct 5 | What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? | ✔ Million / Billion / Trillion 25+ times, Tax 25+ times, Hell 10+ times (+7 more) | $73.6K |
| Oct 7 | How long will Trump and Xi shake hands? | ✔ 2–6s | $140.3K |
| Oct 10 | Lecornu out as French PM? | By December 31, 2026 13.5% | $370.8K |
| Oct 10 | Who will Putin meet bilaterally in Turkmenistan? | ✔ Masoud Pezeshkian, Serdar Berdimuhamedov | $107.2K |
| Oct 19 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | Yes 2.2% | $505.1K |
| Oct 30 | Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting? | ✔ December 31, October 31, November 30 (+1 more) | $2.99M |
| Oct 31 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes <0.1% | $4.68M |
| Oct 31 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement? | By December 31 28.5% | $3.73M |
| Oct 31 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? | ✔ October 31, October 15, November 15 (+1 more) | $2.63M |
| Oct 31 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen? | ✔ October 4, October 5, October 6 (+25 more) | $1.27M |
| Oct 31 | Will Russia target Kyiv? | ✔ October 1, October 2, October 3 (+26 more) | $1.11M |
| Oct 31 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | ✔ No | $981.8K |
| Oct 31 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? | ✔ July 31, October 31 | $928.4K |
| Oct 31 | Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31? | Ken Paxton 99.9%+ | $870.5K |
| Oct 31 | Will Ukraine target Moscow? | ✔ October 4, October 5, October 6 (+18 more) | $584.8K |
| Oct 31 | US Announces Diesel Export ban? | By December 31 5.5% | $528.8K |
| Oct 31 | Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | ✔ Xiaomi | $449.9K |
| Oct 31 | Who will Trump speak to by October 31? | Mark Rutte 7.0% | $305.0K |
| Oct 31 | Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? | ✔ No | $255.3K |
| Oct 31 | Will Iran target Iraq? | ✔ September 30, October 31 | $211.6K |
| Oct 31 | Will Iran target an Arab country? | ✔ September 30, October 31 | $203.5K |
| Oct 31 | Israel military action against Lebanon? | October 6 70.5% | $193.4K |
| Oct 31 | Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia? | October 31 9.2% | $165.3K |
| Oct 31 | Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar? | By December 31 34.5% | $156.2K |
| Oct 31 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S.? | ✔ September 30, October 31 | $148.6K |
| Oct 31 | USD x Iranian rials End of October? | ✔ 2.7-2.8M | $148.2K |
| Oct 31 | Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October? | 25-29 86.5% | $134.6K |
| Oct 31 | Will Russia capture Svitle? | ✔ October 31, December 31 | $123.9K |
| Oct 31 | Paris curfew announced? | ✔ October 19, October 21, October 24 (+1 more) | $117.0K |
| Oct 31 | Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas? | By December 31 61% | $112.0K |
| Oct 31 | Another critical Cloudflare incident? | ✔ October 31 | $108.2K |
| Oct 31 | Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31? | Dario Amodei 24.2% | $100.7K |
| Oct 31 | Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | ✔ Alibaba | $99.0K |
| Oct 31 | Will Russia capture Shevchenko? | ✔ October 31 | $90.1K |
| Oct 31 | Who will Trump meet with by October 31? | ✔ Elon Musk | $83.6K |
| Oct 31 | Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | ✔ Moonshot | $81.9K |
| Oct 31 | EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? | 32M+ 97% | $79.1K |
| Oct 31 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | ✔ No | $77.4K |
| Oct 31 | Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz? | October 31 5.0% | $74.1K |
| Oct 31 | Will Trump publicly insult someone? | ✔ October 2, October 3, October 4 (+27 more) | $73.6K |
| Date | Market | Odds now / result | Volume |
|---|
| Oct 31 | What price will Ethereum hit in October? | ✔ ↓ 2,700, ↓ 2,600, ↓ 2,500 (+27 more) | $4.86M |
| Oct 31 | What price will XRP hit in October? | ✔ ↓ 1.40, ↑ 1.40, ↑ 1.40 (+2 more) | $792.0K |
| Oct 31 | What price will Dogecoin hit in October? | Trading ended · awaiting result · last ↓ 0.05 1.2% | $61.6K |
| Oct 31 | What price will Hyperliquid hit in October? | ✔ ↑ 96, ↑ 92, ↓ 88 (+33 more) | $38.6K |
| Oct 31 | What price will BNB hit in October? | ✔ ↑ 800, ↓ 700, ↑ 700 | $18.0K |
| Oct 31 | Will Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by… | October 31 11.5% (as of 2026-10-14) | $10.0K |
| Oct 31 | What will the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31? | ↑ 50 50.5% (as of 2026-11-01) | $9.7K |
| Oct 31 | What will the Ethereum Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31? | ↑ 70 49% (as of 2026-11-01) | $9.5K |
| Oct 31 | What price will Chainlink hit in October? | ↓ 10 50% (as of 2026-11-01) | $4.5K |
| Oct 31 | What price will Ethena hit in October? | ↑ 0.40 47.5% (as of 2026-10-31) | $4.0K |
| Date | Market | Odds now / result | Volume |
|---|
| Oct 1 | What will be said during Episode 41 of Big Brother? | ✔ Veto 5+ times, Surprise, Date (+4 more) | $32.8K |
| Oct 2 | 'The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore' First Week Album Sales? | ✔ 150k+, 100k+, 160k+ (+5 more) | $132.8K |
| Oct 2 | Taylor Swift "Patient Zero" First Week Streams? | ✔ 45m+, 35m+, 40m+ (+2 more) | $105.6K |
| Oct 3 | # of views of MrBeast Gaming video week 1? | ✔ 30–35M | $334.0K |
| Oct 4 | "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office | ✔ <17m | $126.2K |
| Oct 4 | "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office | ✔ 28m+ | $86.9K |
| Oct 4 | "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes) | ✔ <9m | $69.1K |
| Oct 4 | "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes) | ✔ 32-34m | $62.9K |
| Oct 4 | "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office | ✔ 12-13m | $40.4K |
| Oct 7 | Nobel Chemistry Prize Winner 2026 | Trading ended · awaiting result · last Shankar Balasubramanian 17% | $39.3K |
| Oct 9 | "Digger" Rotten Tomatoes Score? | ✔ 50+, 40+, 45+ (+3 more) | $45.2K |
| Oct 10 | # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? | ✔ 100M+ | $346.1K |
| Oct 11 | "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office | ✔ 27-30m | $225.9K |
| Oct 11 | "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office | ✔ 5-7m | $77.8K |
| Oct 11 | "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office | ✔ 12-13m | $41.7K |
| Oct 12 | Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026 | ✔ Michael Woodford | $96.3K |
| Oct 13 | Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of October 17 | ✔ Patient Zero - Taylor Swift | $30.8K |
| Oct 15 | Jynxzi, Ron, and Los beat Minecraft? | ✔ October 8, October 9, October 10 (+5 more) | $387.5K |
| Oct 17 | # of views of MrBeast Gaming video week 1? | ✔ 50–55M | $156.2K |
| Oct 18 | "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office | ✔ 30-35m | $104.6K |
| Oct 18 | "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office | ✔ <8m | $81.5K |
| Oct 18 | "You Can See Everything" Opening Weekend Box Office | ✔ 7m+ | $31.8K |
| Oct 18 | "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office | ✔ 7m-8m | $30.6K |
| Oct 19 | "Sense and Sensibility" Rotten Tomatoes Score? | ✔ 60+, 65+, 70+ (+4 more) | $31.3K |
| Oct 22 | # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1? | ✔ 60-80M | $1.08M |
| Oct 24 | # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? | ✔ 120M+ | $54.0K |
| Oct 25 | "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office | ✔ 12m-14m | $123.4K |
| Oct 25 | "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office | ✔ 22m-25m | $121.0K |
| Oct 25 | "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office (Higher Brackets) | ✔ 18-19.5M | $82.0K |
| Oct 25 | "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office (Tighter Brackets) | ✔ 24M+ | $46.7K |
| Oct 25 | "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office | ✔ 8-11M | $41.4K |
| Oct 25 | "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office | <2M 93.7% | $39.7K |
| Oct 27 | Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31 | ✔ Housewife - Tate McRae | $36.1K |
| Oct 31 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | ✔ No | $1.13M |
| Oct 31 | "Resident Evil" total domestic gross by October 31? | ✔ 150 - 160m | $317.1K |
| Oct 31 | Taylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31? | ✔ ↑ 104m | $74.4K |
| Oct 31 | "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by October 31? | ✔ <970m | $65.6K |
| Oct 31 | #2 Spotify Artist in October? | ✔ Rihanna | $64.3K |
| Oct 31 | Jynxzi beats Elden Ring DLC? | ✔ October 24, October 25, October 31 | $31.5K |
| Oct 31 | Jack Doherty Prison Time? | ✔ No Prison Time | $30.9K |
| Date | Market | Odds now / result | Volume |
|---|
| Oct 1 | Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer? | ✔ 4.4-4.6m sq km | $105.0K |
| Oct 1 | What will the biggest earthquake be on September 30, 2026? | 5.5 to 5.6 99.8% (as of 2026-10-01) | $5.2K |
| Oct 2 | Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1? | ✔ Midwest (MISO), Mid-Atlantic (PJM) | $47.1K |
| Oct 2 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 1, 2026? | 5.3 to 5.4 99.1% (as of 2026-10-02) | $6.1K |
| Oct 3 | Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September? | Chile 1.8% (as of 2026-10-03) | $7.2K |
| Oct 3 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 2, 2026? | 5.7 to 5.8 99% (as of 2026-10-03) | $5.5K |
| Oct 4 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 3, 2026? | 5.9 to 6.0 98.5% (as of 2026-10-04) | $6.7K |
| Oct 5 | Surigae makes landfall in Japan? | Yes 1.9% (as of 2026-10-03) | $8.2K |
| Oct 5 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 4, 2026? | 5.5 to 5.6 77.3% (as of 2026-10-05) | $7.2K |
| Oct 6 | Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane? | Yes 97% (as of 2026-09-28) | $9.8K |
| Oct 14 | US Tornadoes in September 2026 | 50 - 74 73.5% (as of 2026-10-08) | $2.5K |
| Oct 15 | How strong will Choi-wan be? | ✔ Very strong | $36.5K |
| Oct 15 | Where will Isaias make landfall as a hurricane? | ✔ Florida | $21.0K |
| Oct 15 | How strong will Nolo be? | ✔ Category 4 | $17.1K |
| Oct 15 | How strong will Rachel be? | ✔ Category 3 | $13.5K |
| Oct 15 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 14, 2026? | 5.9 to 6.0 96.9% (as of 2026-10-15) | $1.5K |
| Oct 16 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 15, 2026? | 5.5 to 5.6 46% (as of 2026-10-16) | $1.1K |
| Oct 17 | Highest 24-hour rainfall in Bangkok, October 4-10? | ✔ 50-100mm | $13.0K |
| Oct 17 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 16, 2026? | 6.1 or more 98.4% (as of 2026-10-17) | $1.1K |
| Oct 20 | How strong will Koguma be? | ✔ Very strong | $23.4K |
| Oct 20 | How strong will Isaias be? | ✔ Category 3 | $19.6K |
| Oct 20 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026? | 5.9 to 6.0 98.7% (as of 2026-10-20) | $1.3K |
| Oct 21 | How strong will Simon be? | ✔ Category 4 | $23.3K |
| Oct 21 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 20, 2026? | 6.1 or more 98.2% (as of 2026-10-21) | $2.8K |
| Oct 22 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 21, 2026? | 5.3 to 5.4 98.6% (as of 2026-10-22) | $2.7K |
| Oct 23 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 22, 2026? | 6.1 or more 98% (as of 2026-10-23) | $7.4K |
| Oct 24 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 23, 2026? | 5.7 to 5.8 99% (as of 2026-10-24) | $7.0K |
| Oct 25 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 24, 2026? | 6.1 or more 99.6% (as of 2026-10-25) | $3.5K |
| Oct 26 | How strong will Trudy be? | ✔ Category 3 | $27.8K |
| Oct 26 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 25, 2026? | 6.1 or more 97.9% (as of 2026-10-26) | $4.3K |
| Oct 27 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 26, 2026? | 5.5 to 5.6 99% (as of 2026-10-27) | $4.6K |
| Oct 28 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 27, 2026? | 5.7 to 5.8 96.9% (as of 2026-10-28) | $4.9K |
| Oct 29 | How strong will Champi be? | ✔ Violent | $34.1K |
| Oct 29 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 28, 2026? | 5.9 to 6.0 97.5% (as of 2026-10-29) | $2.9K |
| Oct 30 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 29, 2026? | 6.1 or more 99.5% (as of 2026-10-30) | $6.0K |
| Oct 31 | How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31? | ✔ 6.5+, 7.0+, 7.5+ | $26.3K |
| Oct 31 | When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026? | ✔ October 1 to October 10, 2026 | $13.9K |
| Oct 31 | Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October | 96 km/h or above 87% (as of 2026-10-27) | $6.5K |
| Oct 31 | Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in October? | ≥95 mph 99% (as of 2026-11-01) | $4.8K |
| Oct 31 | What will the biggest earthquake be on October 30, 2026? | Under 5.3 95.8% (as of 2026-10-31) | $3.0K |
Dates are the end dates Polymarket lists; deadlines set at 11:59 PM or midnight US Eastern Time count on their Eastern day. Trading stops at the end date and payout follows resolution (see how markets resolve). Results appear here once a market settles. Free data: /api/v1/calendar/october-2026.json (CC BY 4.0).
Brazil Presidential Election (Oct 25, ✔ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva); Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (Oct 27, Gadi Eizenkot 62.4%); Fed Decision in October? (Oct 28, ✔ No change). Figures as of November 7, 2026.
Each market is placed on the end date Polymarket lists for it. Deadlines set at 11:59 PM or midnight US Eastern Time count on their Eastern day. Trading stops at the end date; payout follows once the market resolves under its rules, which can take longer.
Single games and short recurring series (up/down, daily prices, weather, weekly post counts, stock price paths). Central-bank decisions, data releases, elections, awards and season-long sports markets are included.
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