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October 2026 prediction market calendar

Updated September 24, 2026 · refreshed twice a day · October 1–31, 2026 · dates are Polymarket's listed end dates

174 Polymarket markets end in October 2026 (single games and short recurring series left out). The most traded: Brazil Presidential Election (Oct 4, Flávio Bolsonaro 56.6%); MLB World Series Champion 2026 (Oct 31, Los Angeles Dodgers 30.5%); Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (Oct 27, Gadi Eizenkot 51.5%).

Key dates

By section: Economy, central banks and data releases (29) · Elections (63) · Politics and geopolitics (22) · Sports (23) · Crypto (1) · Tech and AI (27) · Culture and awards (9)

Economy, central banks and data releases

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 1ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 202653.0 to 53.9 31.5%$14.6K
Oct 1Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by September 30?↓$550B 50.5%$11.4K
Oct 1Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by September 30?↓$105B 99.6%$10.1K
Oct 1Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings?Yes 60%$985
Oct 2September Unemployment Rate4.1% 38.5%$20.8K
Oct 6Will Lamb Weston (LW) beat quarterly earnings?Yes 69%$474
Oct 7Reserve Bank of India decision in October25 bps increase 82.5%$23.1K
Oct 10What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?$335K - $340K 71.5%$106.4K
Oct 10What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?<$419K 70%$98.4K
Oct 10What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?$1.161M - $1.196M 62.1%$85.9K
Oct 10What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?$1.169M - $1.185M 47.8%$83.8K
Oct 10What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30?$663K - $689K 78.2%$83.5K
Oct 10What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?$524K - $530K 73.4%$73.3K
Oct 14September Inflation US - Annual3.6% 45.5%$73.4K
Oct 14September Inflation US - Monthly0.6% 41%$36.5K
Oct 14Core CPI YoY - September 20262.4% 46.5%$27.0K
Oct 14Price of Dozen Eggs in September?$2.20 to $2.30 51.5%$13.7K
Oct 15PPI YoY - September 20265.9%+ 45%$14.3K
Oct 21Bank of Israel Decision in October?No Change 77.5%$31.3K
Oct 22Bank of Korea decision in October?No Change 69.5%$27.0K
Oct 23Bank of Russia decision in October?No Change 69%$40.2K
Oct 28Fed Decision in October?25 bps increase 68.5%$11.98M
Oct 28Bank of Canada Decision in October?No Change 53.5%$105.9K
Oct 28Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?25 bps increase 47.5%$71.8K
Oct 29ECB Interest Rates: October 2026No change 53%$206.5K
Oct 29US GDP growth in Q3 2026?≥3.0% 74%$41.2K
Oct 30Bank of Japan Decision in October?No change 82%$137.4K
Oct 30Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?1.3%+ 38.5%$52.1K
Oct 30Central Bank of Colombia decision in OctoberNo change 57.5%$13.7K

Elections

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 3Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerAS 90.5%$235.7K
Oct 3Latvian Parliamentary Election: 2nd PlaceLPV 44%$29.9K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential ElectionFlávio Bolsonaro 56.6%$154.49M
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceFlávio Bolsonaro 72%$7.81M
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceRenan Santos 47.5%$1.43M
Oct 4Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?Flavio Bolsonaro 98.2%$711.0K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryLula da Silva <5% 53.5%$601.2K
Oct 4Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Yes 5.2%$327.4K
Oct 4Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats WonPL 85.5%$304.6K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round WinnerLula 71.5%$219.0K
Oct 4Lima Mayoral Election WinnerRafael López Aliaga 71.6%$192.3K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?2-4% 37%$97.0K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?39%+ 86.5%$79.4K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in GoiásFlavio Bolsonaro 87.5%$67.9K
Oct 4São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceAndré do Prado 54%$61.8K
Oct 4Paraná Senate Election: 1st PlaceFilipe Barros 34.5%$59.7K
Oct 4Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd PlaceMarcelo Crivella 53.8%$58.3K
Oct 4Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd PlaceEsperidião Amin 41%$57.4K
Oct 4Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceCarlos Viana 34.8%$54.7K
Oct 4São Paulo Senate Election: 1st PlaceGuilherme Derrite 79%$54.6K
Oct 4Acre Senate Election: 1st PlaceMarcio Bittar 45%$43.4K
Oct 4Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st PlaceMarcel Van Hattem 80%$39.5K
Oct 4Paraná Senate Election: 2nd PlaceFilipe Barros 39.5%$37.2K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas GeraisLula 58.5%$37.1K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do SulFlavio Bolsonaro 90.5%$29.7K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in TocantinsFlavio Bolsonaro 50.5%$28.3K
Oct 5Quebec General Election WinnerPQ 94.5%$1.04M
Oct 5Quebec General Election: Second PlacePLQ 86.5%$35.8K
Oct 17Vancouver Mayoral Election WinnerPete Fry 62.1%$210.7K
Oct 17Saanich, BC Mayoral Election WinnerZac de Vries 59.5%$31.8K
Oct 25Bulgaria Presidential ElectionIliana Iotova 70.5%$576.4K
Oct 25Serbia Parliamentary Election WinnerAleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 67.5%$49.1K
Oct 26Toronto Mayoral Election WinnerOlivia Chow 87%$186.9K
Oct 26Ottawa Mayoral Election WinnerMark Sutcliffe 84.5%$84.9K
Oct 27Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Gadi Eizenkot 51.5%$38.92M
Oct 27Israeli Legislative Election WinnerYashar 62%$324.7K
Oct 27How many Israeli elections before government formed?1 64.5%$45.0K
Oct 28Winnipeg Mayoral ElectionScott Gillingham 52%$27.4K
Oct 31Closest Senate Race?Iowa 17.8%$50.5K
Oct 31Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?↓ 8% 86.5%$34.4K

23 smaller markets in this section are in the JSON file.

Politics and geopolitics

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 4How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28?170-189 33.5%$5.8K
Oct 4How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?<20 27.5%$5.0K
Oct 7How long will Trump and Xi shake hands?6–10s 32%$69.8K
Oct 7Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of Xi summit?Yes 1.1%$28.6K
Oct 7Who will attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?Sam Altman 99.7%$23.2K
Oct 7Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?Yes 0.2%$10.7K
Oct 7Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Yes 4.2%$9.5K
Oct 7When will Xi leave the USA?September 25 99.6%$3.9K
Oct 31Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement?By October 31 30%$2.68M
Oct 31US-Iran ceasefire continues?Through October 31 59%$2.58M
Oct 31Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts?By October 31 80.9%$1.34M
Oct 31Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes 6.5%$849.9K
Oct 31Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar?By October 31 9.5%$149.1K
Oct 31Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Alibaba 66.5%$109.1K
Oct 31U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S.?By October 31 25%$102.6K
Oct 31Will Russia capture Shevchenko?By October 31 28%$63.0K
Oct 31US Announces Diesel Export ban?By October 31 21.5%$55.6K
Oct 31US-Yemen ceasefire continues?Through October 31 68%$54.8K
Oct 31Will Iran target an Arab country?By October 31 41%$52.1K
Oct 31Netanyahu arrested by…?December 31 4.0%$30.4K
Oct 31Trump meets with Mark Carney?By October 31 64%$12.7K
Oct 31Clavicular in jail?By October 31 9.5%$8.8K

Sports

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 3Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2Mayweather 50.5%$214.1K
Oct 4MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win TotalsBoston Red Sox 83.5%$149.5K
Oct 5MLB Playoffs: Team to advance to ALDSCleveland Guardians 67.5%$8.0K
Oct 8WNBA: Assists Per Game LeaderAlyssa Thomas 59.5%$437.8K
Oct 8WNBA: Blocks Per Game LeaderA'ja Wilson 98.5%$31.5K
Oct 11MLB: Most Home Runs (Team)New York Yankees 87%$607.5K
Oct 11MLB: Team to win 100+ gamesMilwaukee Brewers 93.5%$318.7K
Oct 11MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home RunsHunter Goodman 52%$58.3K
Oct 11MLB: 2026 WAR LeaderPete Crow-Armstrong 97.4%$6.7K
Oct 11MLB Wins Leader (2026)Cristopher Sánchez 66.5%$5.1K
Oct 1246th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament WinnerUzbekistan 80.5%$232.8K
Oct 15MLB: Home Runs LeaderKyle Schwarber 48.5%$3.20M
Oct 15MLB: Strikeouts Leader - PitcherJacob Misiorowski 57%$2.99M
Oct 15MLB: ERA LeaderJacob Misiorowski 90%$1.78M
Oct 15MLB: RBIs LeaderAlec Burleson 47.5%$1.62M
Oct 15MLB: Batting Average LeaderYordan Alvarez 63.5%$1.37M
Oct 15MLB: Stolen Bases LeaderNasim Nuñez 92.5%$684.6K
Oct 19VALORANT Champions 2026: WinnerPaper Rex 29%$21.6K
Oct 22NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?Yes 1.8%$260.5K
Oct 25ESL Pro League Season 24: WinnerSpirit 32%$18.2K
Oct 31MLB World Series Champion 2026Los Angeles Dodgers 30.5%$41.09M
Oct 31MLB: 2026 AL West ChampionHouston Astros 66.4%$179.3K
Oct 31MLB: Number of no-hitters thrown in 20263+ 49.5%$3.3K

Crypto

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 31Senate passes Clarity Act?By October 31 4.5%$39.5K

Tech and AI

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 1Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?↑$975B 57%$84.3K
Oct 1Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?↑$1.325T 99.8%$32.3K
Oct 13rd largest private company end of September?ByteDance 97.4%$11.7K
Oct 5Best AI model on October 5?Other 73%$2.8K
Oct 31Next Google Gemini Pro Model released?By October 31 76%$1.36M
Oct 31Which company has the best AI model end of October?Anthropic 88.5%$397.5K
Oct 31SSI public model released by…?October 31 66.5%$115.2K
Oct 31Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?Anthropic 67.5%$82.3K
Oct 31Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?Google 29%$78.2K
Oct 31Situational Awareness raises new capital?By October 31 40.5%$77.0K
Oct 31Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?Google 76.5%$44.4K
Oct 31GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?$0.60+ 54.8%$35.9K
Oct 31Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?Anthropic 68%$33.5K
Oct 31Third-best AI Lab end of October?Meta 40.5%$32.8K
Oct 31Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?OpenAI 60.5%$27.3K
Oct 31Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released?By October 31 90.5%$26.1K
Oct 31Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)Anthropic 85.5%$24.1K
Oct 31GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?$6.50+ 72.5%$23.9K
Oct 31Second-best AI Lab end of October?Google 53.5%$23.3K
Oct 31GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?$3.00+ 48.5%$21.3K
Oct 31GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?$5.50+ 30%$20.3K
Oct 31Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October?OpenAI 93.5%$16.3K
Oct 31Which company has the best Image-to-Video AI end of October?MiniMax 54.5%$15.7K
Oct 31Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape?By October 31 19.5%$4.7K
Oct 31Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released?October 31 17%$3.3K
Oct 31Next Gemini Pro Model released?No release by October 31 24%$2.7K
Oct 31Another Frontier Math Problem Solved?By October 31 70%$1.7K

Culture and awards

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 3# of views of MrBeast Gaming video week 1?40–45M 27.5%$7.3K
Oct 4"Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office<17m 60%$9.7K
Oct 4What will be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (September 28)Right 96.8%$2.0K
Oct 9"Digger" Rotten Tomatoes Score?60+ 34.2%$15.5K
Oct 19"Sense and Sensibility" Rotten Tomatoes Score?60+ 96%$9.2K
Oct 31"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?950 - 960m 98.4%$936.5K
Oct 31Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Yes 20.6%$657.1K
Oct 31What will MrBeast say during his next gaming YouTube video?Minecraft 74.5%$2.4K
Oct 31Clavicular charges dropped by October 31?Yes 20.5%$455

Dates are the end dates Polymarket lists; deadlines set at 11:59 PM or midnight US Eastern Time count on their Eastern day. Trading stops at the end date and payout follows resolution (see how markets resolve). Results appear here once a market settles. Free data: /api/v1/calendar/october-2026.json (CC BY 4.0).

Frequently asked questions

What are the biggest prediction markets in October 2026?

Brazil Presidential Election (Oct 4, Flávio Bolsonaro 56.6%); MLB World Series Champion 2026 (Oct 31, Los Angeles Dodgers 30.5%); Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (Oct 27, Gadi Eizenkot 51.5%). Figures as of September 24, 2026.

How are the dates on this calendar chosen?

Each market is placed on the end date Polymarket lists for it. Deadlines set at 11:59 PM or midnight US Eastern Time count on their Eastern day. Trading stops at the end date; payout follows once the market resolves under its rules, which can take longer.

Which markets are left out?

Single games and short recurring series (up/down, daily prices, weather, weekly post counts, stock price paths). Central-bank decisions, data releases, elections, awards and season-long sports markets are included.

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